Government shutdown 2011: Obama warns of recession as budget deadlock continues
- Government services and tourist attractions ' open for business', says Obama
- The new deal will cut $39bn from the budget
- Funding for abortion to be voted on separately next week
- 'Obamacare' will also be voted on next week
- Government workers faced being temporarily laid off
With just one hour to spare before the midnight deadline, Barack Obama and John Boehner last night shook hands on a bitterly-fought compromise budget that will prevent a total government shutdown.
The compromise will cut about $38billion in spending for the next fiscal year, one of the largest cuts in history - and a victory for Republicans.
Last night Congress quickly approved a stopgap funding measure to keep the federal government running into next week until the budget agreement can be formally approved.
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Burning the midnight oil: The bickering parties only struck a deal around 10.45pm tonight, coming to an interim deal which keeps the government running
We have a deal: Speaker John Boehner speaks to the press after coming perilously close to a midnight deadline
A shutdown - the first in more than 15 years - would have weakened the U.S. economic recovery, forced furloughs for some 800,000 federal employees, closed national parks and monuments and even delayed paychecks for troops in Afghanistan and Iraq.
But the biggest incentive for a deal may have been the risks that failure would have posed for Mr Obama, his Democrats and the Republicans just as the 2012 presidential election campaign gathers steam.
Public frustration over the budget fight had surged as Democrats and Republicans traded blame and a shutdown loomed.
Open for business: U.S. President Barack Obama makes his post-deal statement from the Blue Room of the White House
'Tomorrow, I'm pleased to announce that the Washington Monument as well as the entire federal government will be open for business,' Mr Obama said in a late-night appearance at the White House shortly after the agreement was reached.
'That is because today Americans of different beliefs came together again.
'This agreement between Republicans and Democrats on behalf of all Americans is on a budget that invests in our future while making the largest annual spending cut in our history.
WHY DID IT COME TO THIS AND WHAT NOW?
Last year Congress was unable to pass a budget for 2011.
As a compromise they decided to fund the government at 2010 levels until 4 March, by passing a 'continuing resolution'.
Between then and the deadline, Republicans and Democrats moved even further apart, as newly elected Tea Party-backed members demanded that House Speaker John Boehner make even deeper cuts to the 2011 budget than he had originally proposed.
With both sides unable to agree on the level of cuts, and with Republican members demanding cuts to programs such as 'Obamacare' and Planned Parenthood, the government came to the brink of a shut down.
And now what?
The debate will continue into next week with separate votes planned for controversial 'riders' such as cuts to 'Obamacare' and Planned Parenthood.
The question now remains whether these problems can be worked out and the final budget passed before next Thursday
'Some of the cuts we agreed on will be painful...I would not have made these cuts in better circumstances.
'But beginning to live within our means is the only way to protect those investments that will help America compete for new jobs.
'We protected the investments we needed to protect our future. Today we acted on behalf of our children’s future.'
Compromise: US Speaker of the House John Boehner (R) and U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (L) continued discussions today
Mr Boehner said: 'I’m pleased that Senator Reid and the White House have come to an agreement that will cut spending and keep our government open.
'We have fought to keep government spending down because it really will affect and create a better job environment in this country.'
WHAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN
- 800,000 government workers temporarily laid off
- U.S. soldiers pay suspended
- Tax refunds for millions of people delayed
- Small business loans and government-guaranteed mortgages suspended
- National Parks shut such as Yosemite and Yellowstone
- Smithsonian museums and galleries in Washington close
- Washington’s traditional springtime Cherry Blossom parade wiped out
It provides the largest spending cuts in U.S. history, a victory for Republicans who won control of the House of Representatives in November on promises to scale back government.
House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, who came under intense pressure from Tea Party conservatives inside his own Republican Party to take an even tougher stance, said the deal clears the way for bigger spending cuts in coming years.
But Mr Obama and the Democrats were able to beat back a Republican effort to block birth control funding to the Planned Parenthood family planning organization, because it also provides abortions - though not with public money.
'Both sides had to make tough decisions and give ground on issues that were important to them,' Mr Obama said.
Yesterday he warned of an inevitable effect on the economy of a shutdown.
He quoted top economist Mark Zandi saying: 'The economic damage from a government shutdown would mount very quickly.
'And the longer it dragged on, the greater the odds of a renewed recession.'
Mr Obama added: 'We’ve been working very hard over the last two years to get this economy back on its feet. For us to go backwards because Washington couldn’t get its act together is unacceptable.
The fight did little to improve the view Americans have of their political leaders. By holding off on a settlement until the final minute, both Mr Obama and Mr Boehner were accused of showboating in a bid to show their respective parties that they had fought for their position until the last moment.
Press conference: Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid thanked Republican members for joining the compromised deal
Talking today: House Speaker John Boehner, centre, had stood with Republican leaders to emphasise that money issues remained unresolved
It also raised concerns about the ability of Mr Obama and a divided Congress to deal with bigger issues, from raising the federal debt ceiling to reining in budget deficits.
Even some lawmakers said the bitter feuding had sent a bad message to the rest of the world.
'They've got to be laughing at us right now' in China, said Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry.
Fears that a government shutdown would hurt economic growth had pressured the dollar and U.S. Treasury prices on Friday.
Protest: Republican representative, Michele Bachmann, speaks at an Americans for Prosperity 'Cut Spending Now,' rally as government shutdown fears grew earlier in the week
March: As many as 800,000 government workers are likely to be temporarily laid off and left in limbo waiting for federal funding to resume if the shutdown goes ahead
All sides agreed the debate had been long and painful.
'It has been a grueling process. We didn't do it at this late hour for drama. We did it because it has been very hard to arrive at this point,' said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat.
After the deal was finally reached, White House Budget Director Jack Lew told federal agencies to continue their normal operations.
But there will almost certainly be a much bigger showdown over the budget for the next fiscal year, which begins on October 1.
Republicans are already pledging to slash taxes and overhaul Medicaid and Medicare, government-run health programs for the poor and elderly. The Democratic-controlled Senate is likely to flatly reject those plans.
A government shutdown could have been a negative for Mr Obama as he seeks re-election. But there were significant risks for Republican leaders, too, especially if they were seen as being under the thumb of Tea Party radicals.
The budget battle has dominated Mr Obama's agenda even as he struggles to balance Americans' chief concerns - jobs and the economy - with foreign policy challenges topped by Middle East turmoil and U.S. military involvement in the Libyan conflict.
Among other key elements, the temporary agreement has saved:
- The Environmental Protection Agency would ceasing to issuing permits and stop reviewing environmental impact statements which will slow approval of projects.
- Military personnel not getting paid beyond Friday
- National parks would be closing
- Most government websites would have not been updated, unless they were deemed essential.
Deadlock: U.S. Speaker of the House John Boehner (R) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid talk after crisis talks at the White House last night
Why the fight over Planned Parenthood?
Republicans portray Planned Parenthood as primarily focused on performing abortions and - intentionally or not - using American taxpayer dollars to do it.
Not so, say Democrats who counter that the group's 800-plus health centres nationwide provide an array of services, from screenings for cancer to testing for sexually transmitted diseases.
Abortion is just one of many procedures, and the law bars Planned Parenthood from using tax money for it.
In the budget maelstrom that threatened to partially shut the federal government Friday stood Planned Parenthood Federation of America, a 90-year-old organisation now part of a decades-long congressional battle over abortion.
Republicans want any legislation keeping the government operating to bar federal dollars for Planned Parenthood, the nation's largest provider of abortions. They want to distribute the money to the states.
Democrats say they see a radical agenda against women's health, especially poor and low-income women, and won't allow it, even if that meant shutting down the government.
Republican leaders say that's just not so. The question of a shutdown, they said Friday, is about a need for greater cuts in federal spending, not social issues including abortion.
Planned Parenthood said it receives $363 million in federal funds, getting its money from both the Title X program and Medicaid.
Title X provides grants for family planning and related health services under a law signed by Republican President Richard M. Nixon in December 1970.
Of the Title X money, Planned Parenthood gets about $70 million, some 25 percent of the $317 million in Title X spending. The organisation's annual budget is $1.1 billion and includes individual donations.
BUDGET BATTLE IS OVER... NOW THE WAR BEGINS
The battle over the U.S. budget has ended. Now the war begins.
The debate over this year's budget that took the U.S. government to within an hour of a shutdown is only a dress rehearsal for bigger spending clashes to come.
Within weeks, the government will bump up against the limits of its borrowing authority and will require congressional action to avoid a debt default that would roil financial markets.
At the same time, Republicans in the House of Representatives are targeting bigger game in their budget plan for the next fiscal year, which starts on October 1.
Their proposal would slash taxes and overhaul Medicaid and Medicare, government-run health programs for the poor and elderly. It is likely to be rejected by the Democratic-controlled Senate, setting up another showdown between the two chambers.
That fight could last well into the 2012 campaign season, when President Barack Obama, one-third of the U.S. Senate and the entire House will face voters.
The budget deal agreed on Friday, if it passes Congress next week, would amount to the largest domestic spending cut in U.S. history.
That's a victory for Republicans who won control of the House in November on a promise to scale back the government and take a bite out of recession-bloated budget deficits that have hovered around 10 per cent of GDP in recent years.
But the size of that cut, $37.8billion, is less than the amount the federal government spends in four days.
Even as the government stood on the brink of a shutdown markets largely shrugged, because the Treasury Department still would have been able to issue and service debt.
Investors will be watching the next fight more closely.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner estimates the government could hit its current debt limit of $14.3 trillion by mid-May and has warned failure to raise it would be 'catastrophic.
Treasury could employ a variety of tricks to avoid defaulting for several weeks, but eventually it would run out of options.
An increase of at least $1 trillion is needed to keep the government running through the end of fiscal year on September 30, according to a Reuters analysis. To last until the November 2012 election, the increase would need to be well over $2 trillion.
Raising the debt ceiling is always a politically difficult vote no matter the circumstances, but it will be a heavier lift for Republicans. Facing pressure from fiscally conservative Tea Party activists, they say they will not vote to raise the debt ceiling without significant concessions to slow government spending further.
That could force Treasury to spin its wheels for months while Congress works out a solution.
Next year's budget debate will not be pretty, either.
Democrats have already promised to block the Republican proposal to give states control over the Medicaid health program for the poor and turn the Medicare health program for retirees into a voucher system.
Democrats also have criticized House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan's refusal to end tax breaks for wealthy oil companies or to propose other tax increases that many budget experts think are necessary to solve long-term fiscal woes.
And there will be a chance to reprise the recent fight over domestic spending.
Ryan is seeking another round of deep cuts in that area, which encompasses education, law enforcement, aid to the poor, and space exploration, but represents only about 14 percent of the U.S. annual budget.
In his plan for the 2012 fiscal year, Ryan would slice approximately $80 billion from those discretionary programs, while increasing defense spending about $28 billion.
The House could vote on Ryan's budget blueprint as soon as next week.
HOW OBAMA HAS LOST IN THE BUDGET BATTLE
So this is change?
It was just at the start of this week that Obama launched his re-election bid with a sunny video of real people talking about their hopes and needs.
By week's end, Obama was mired in budget negotiations, cancelling trips and scrambling to hold off a government shutdown that would surely erode the public's faith in his leadership.
That's the messy business of governing. And this is how it is going to be this time around for incumbent Obama.
This was a test of leadership. The White House says Obama ultimately got the compromise he wanted.
But it was an exhausting process that left people wondering why the government was somehow on the brink of debacle.
In this case, the new House Republican majority, led by Speaker John Boehner, turned a must-pass budget bill into a political chance to give voice to frustrated voters and tea party conservatives who demanded spending cuts. And suddenly Washington was back in brinksmanship mode again, where nothing gets done until deadline. And sometimes not even then.
In public, Obama tried to keep it at arm's length. But in fact he was involved up to his neck.
The White House said his strategy was to stay behind the scenes, work the phones and let his senior aides do the negotiating. That hard-to-see engagement provided a huge opening for Republicans to question his leadership. And it led to rumblings from frustrated lawmakers in his own Democratic Party who wanted Obama to openly attack the cuts Republicans wanted.
The White House figured it would take those hits. In the midst of this conflict and other challenges, a Gallup poll in late March found that an eroding number of people said Obama was a strong and decisive leader.
The West Wing thinking was that a better result would come if Obama not try to overheat the issue. They also believed that people across the nation were worried about gas prices, not a messy political squabble over a spending bill and that the voters didn't hire Obama to be a legislator. Obama would go public when it meant the most.
The vocal version of the president emerged on Tuesday.
He said Americans don't want games but rather results, the pragmatic approach. That's the style White House strategists believe will bring back the election-turning independents to Obama. He spoke like a leader who had world troubles on his mind and demanded feuding lawmakers to keep working.
But it wasn't getting done, and his voice was not the only one setting the tone.
'The president isn't leading,' Boehner said Wednesday. 'He didn't lead on last year's budget, and he clearly is not leading on this year's budget.'
While striving to avoid a shutdown, Obama's team privately thought they would come out OK in the public's mind if it came to that.
The thinking was that the president had presented a reasonable case of agreeing to spending cuts without going too far, and that people would frown upon Republicans if the government stopped fully running over an unrelated policy conflict like abortion.
One Gallup poll found that 58 per cent of adults, and 60 per cent of independents, favoured a budget compromise over a shutdown.
But another reality lurked for Obama.
The politics-saturated budget battle graphically demonstrates how government is not supposed to operate. No matter who is to blame, all will be blamed.
The everyday Americans Obama talks about so often just want a Washington that works.
That means staying open for business.
And for incumbents with opponents who run the House, it can mean getting encumbered by Washington, once again.
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